Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?

170Ṁ189

2031

78%

chance

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Option 'Yes' will be considered correct if:
1. Within a short timeframe after AGI is achieved, an AI system demonstrates capabilities that significantly surpass the brightest human minds in every domain, from creativity to general wisdom, and from scientific discovery to social skills.
2. There is a clear, identifiable leap from AGI to ASI without intermediate steps that require significant human intervention or additional breakthroughs in AI technology.
Option 'No' will be considered correct if:
1. There is a prolonged period after achieving AGI where AI development continues in incremental steps and does not immediately result in an ASI.
2. The development of ASI involves additional breakthroughs or paradigm shifts in technology or theoretical understanding that are not direct extensions of AGI capabilities.
3. AGI exists for a considerable amount of time (beyond the predefined short timeframe) without naturally evolving or contributing to the creation of ASI.

Time will be extended accordingly.

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What's your definition of "short timeframe", "prolonged period"?

I'm assuming you don't consider GPT-4 AGI (I actually think it fits most pre-2010 definitions, and we're collectively moving the goalpost on the term), so what qualifies?

relevant:

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Will AGI bring fast ASI?

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Will AGI bring fast ASI?

Hmm interesting question. I suspect we will get something that can be considered AGI in many ways, equal to or exceeding humans in many arenas of activity and then exceeding us (or far exceeding us) in several 'less human' arenas of activity. I don't know whether it will be on par with humans in EVERY regard, and I don't know if it will be quite a 'human like' intelligence. With regards specifically to problem-solving though (the commonly stated metric, as you noted) I suspect AGI will appear and then require several incremental steps to reach any sort of singularity or superintelligence.

Still not sure though! Have to think about it a bit before voting.