Will AI create the first AGI?
Plus
4
Ṁ2502035
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff: AGI is created before 2035 according to this question:
https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
And a publicly known system (at the time of resolution) created before the first publicly known AGI (at the time of resolution) is able to write the full code base of an AGI, without introducing any new human knowledge to it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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