Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027
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150Ṁ6482027
91%
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This market will resolve to YES if https://metr.org benchmarks an AI system released before the end of 2027 that scores at least 8 hours on the 50% success rate category. If such a system is released by 2027 but is not benchmarked by METR until later, it will be resolved to YES
Otherwise, the resolution will be NO
The closing date was chosen since extrapolating current trends predicts that such a system will exist by this date.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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