This market will resolve to YES if https://metr.org benchmarks an AI system released before the end of 2027 that scores at least 8 hours on the 50% success rate category. If such a system is released by 2027 but is not benchmarked by METR until later, it will be resolved to YES

Otherwise, the resolution will be NO

The closing date was chosen since extrapolating current trends predicts that such a system will exist by this date.