State of AI Report '23 predictions: Will a Hollywood-grade production make use of generative AI for visual effects?

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2025

86%

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In the annual state of AI report, this is the first prediction:

"A Hollywood-grade production makes use of generative AI for visual effects."

This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true.

This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false.

This resolves to N/A if the report marks this as ambiguous.

I will resolve this early if the market is >95% and I believe we have a clear example of such a production, but since we do not know when the report comes out we cannot resolve to NO early.

I would interpret this wording as requiring full video effects, not merely images, and that it be used extensively not only in 1-2 small places, but will bow to their interpretation and grading barring, unless they fail to make an explicit judgment in the '24 report (or fail to issue the '24 report by EOY '24).

Report can be found here: https://www.stateof.ai/

State of AI Report 2023

The State of AI Report seeks to trigger informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future.

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Assume you’re caveating out title sequences, else this should already resolve true: https://www.polygon.com/23767640/ai-mcu-secret-invasion-opening-credits

Yes, Secret Invasion’s opening credits scene is AI-made — here’s why

AI is used to create the opening credits sequence on Disney Plus’ Secret Invasion show. The director and executive producer says he thinks it’s a perfect fit.

@DaveK yes if I was grading I would exclude that, otherwise why make the prediction?

@ZviMowshowitz Oh, two very mundane reasons:
1. You just might not be aware of it -- Hollywood creates too much product these days for everyone to know of it all -- and want to exclude it explicitly so that the market is still of use
2. (More importantly) Creating common knowledge among participants that you don't include this sort of thing -- as I had suspected -- means that the market is more informationally-useful to me :)

@DaveK to be clear then, if they say Secret Invasion or otherwise only distinct abstract things like credits, I will overrule that and say it does not count. Has to be integrated and throughout.