10 x State of AI Report 2024 Predictions about 2025

Standard

Ṁ1924

2025

ALL

11%

1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.

44%

2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

52%

3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

45%

4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

25%

5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

74%

6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

24%

7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

58%

8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

34%

9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

66%

10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

State of AI Report is published each year, and always carries 10 predictions that then get resolved in next year's report.

The above 10 questions will resolve according to YES/NO and N/A, in line with what the report does. I will strictly abide by their own ruling when I resolve, and apologize in advance om their behalf for any frustration you might have with their decision.

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bought Ṁ5 10. A video game bas... NO

Your predictions will always be true if they are vague enough!

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