On the one hand, we have AIs that can create videos and audio, today, in 2023.

On the other hand, even if the technology gets good enough that Hollywood is happy to use it, we will still have:

• bidding wars for big name stars (even if AI generates all the footage, they'll still have to sign release forms to allow their likenesses to be used by the AIs)

• big name directors with negotiating leverage of their own

• greedy Hollywood unions who will see the opportunity for a bigger slice of the pie when films look like they're going to become cheaper to produce on average

that might swallow up all the gains.

In terms of competition, we have:

• Bollywood, Nollywood, Europe's heavily-subsidised film industry, China's heavily-censored film industry, none of which can really compete with Hollywood at the moment (though AIs might help level the playing field).

• Unknowns on YouTube and Twitter using AI - but if an entire continent (Europe) can't compete with Hollywood, why should unknowns be able to? (One-off successes like the Blair Witch project aside - they are the exceptions that prove the rule.)

• TV - but people still watch movies, despite the huge number of TV channels out there

So where is the competition going to come from to force Hollywood to lower prices?