This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Argylle" (2024) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15009428/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by February 9th, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
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@mattyb certainly looks set, though if there isn't a rush typically (for consistency) I just wait til boxofficemojo gets rid of the blue highlight "estimates" tag on the domestic page (normally by Tuesday). if it takes any longer than 1 more day I can just call it (as obviously it's nowhere near $25M)
‘Argylle’ Debuts With 39% on Rotten Tomatoes
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/1/31/svg70vvxx9js4duladw9p9m3nigv4e
Next weekend, with the arrival of Apple Original Films’ Matthew Vaughn-directed Henry Cavill action title, Argylle, via Universal, should put some juice back in the box office. But not much, as it’s expected to open in the teens.
https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-beekeeper-1235806489/