Will "Dune: Part Two" have domestic gross >50% larger than "Kung Fu Panda 4" (two months after release)
24
136
370
resolved May 10
Resolved
NO

BoxOfficeMojo is the data source:

Kung Fu Panda 4 releases on March 8th. I will use the cumulative domestic total for both movies as of May 8th. For an example of the number I will use, Kung Fu Panda 3 released on January 29th (2016), and as of March 29th its cumulative domestic total was $139,634,577.

If Kung Fu Panda has grossed $160M by May 8th, then this question resolves YES if Dune: Part Two has grossed >$240M, and NO if it has grossed <=$240M.

Other details:

  • If the result looks mathematically certain, I may resolve this market early, rather than waiting the full two months.

  • Note: For simplicity, I'm checking both cumulative totals for the same date (two months after KFP4 releases), even though Dune releases a week earlier.

  • If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.

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  • Dune: $281,544,225.

  • KFP4: $188,996,220.

  • 1.5x KFP4 = $283.5M.

  • This question resolves NO.

Next, predict how much "Furiosa" will gross at the box office. @traders

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-furiosa-a-mad-max-sag-c15230455a75

/Ziddletwix/how-much-will-furiosa-a-mad-max-sag-bbd78206bd52

For a direct comparison (no 50% handicap for KFP4), you can check out @mattyb 's closely related markets: