📕 vs. 🕷️: Will Argylle (2024) have a larger global box office than Madame Web (2024)?
34
458
Ṁ590
resolved Apr 12
Resolved
NO
Argylle - $65M-105M Madame Web - $150-200M
Jan 12
Argylle: $80M (Day 22) MW: $57M (Day 10)
Feb 24
@mattyb Argylle: $86.5M (Day 24) [+6.5M] MW: $77.4M (Day 10) [+20M]
Feb 26
@mattyb Argylle: $86.5M (Day 24) [+6.5M] MW: $77.4M (Day 10) [+20M]
Feb 26
@mattyb Argylle: $88.1M (Day 27) [+1.6M] MW: $79.1M (Day 15) [+1.7M]
Mar 1
@mattyb Argylle: $88.1M (Day 27) [+1.6M] MW: $79.1M (Day 15) [+1.7M]
Mar 1

The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.

Will Argylle perform better than Madame Web at the global box office (according to the links above)?

Will Resolve once both movies are out of theaters, or one has been mathematically eliminated.

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Argylle is nearly $5M behind, and only really in the US market, where it’s making ~$10k a day. At this rate, it would take ~450 days for Argylle to catch up, which won’t happen.

Argylle has been mathematically eliminated.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Argylle: $80M (Day 22)

MW: $57M (Day 10)

sold Ṁ34 NO

@mattyb FWIW Argylle releases in China this weekend & MW releases there next weekend. (I originally bet on this market having sorta bungled some of the numbers, then I thought maybe the china releases would swing it, but atm it looks like neither will move the needle much so argylle does seem likely to hold out)

(comparing the big spike of a wednesday release w/ argylle's rollout was easy to mess up lol)

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 46% order

@mattyb

Argylle: $86.5M (Day 24) [+6.5M]

MW: $77.4M (Day 10) [+20M]

@mattyb

Argylle: $88.1M (Day 27) [+1.6M]

MW: $79.1M (Day 15) [+1.7M]

bought Ṁ10 YES

You have two markets for this, Argle is doing better on opening weekend, but Madam is doing better on global, why might that be?

@VAPOR Superheroes sell better than spies? Just a guess, it’s hard to tell really. You’ve got big name celebs in both (Superman and Dua Lipa vs. 50 Shades and Sydney Sweeney), and both have some action, and pretty bad writing.

It could be that non-English audiences may worry that Argylle’s going to be too wordy? It is about an author 🤷🏻‍♂️

predicted NO
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Argylle - $65M-105M

Madame Web - $150-200M

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