Resolution Criteria

1. What Counts as a “Halt” or “Shutdown”

   • Full shutdown: Iran officially bans tankers from passing (e.g., an announcement or mine/blockade puts the Strait off-limits).

   • Traffic halt via attacks: Iran carries out enough attacks (mines, missiles, drones) over a short period that 50% or more of all tankers stop passing for at least one full day—because they’re rerouted, held up, or avoiding the area completely.

2. Both requirements must be met to establish that it happened

   • Requirement 1: Ship-tracking data (like AIS):

     It must show tanker transit falls by ≥50% in the Strait for a day or more.

   • Requirement 2: News or official statements:

     A credible news source (e.g., Reuters, NYT, IMO alerts,) confirming the drop in traffic or attack actions.

3. Exclusions (not considered evidence):

   • Isolated attacks on one or two ships—not enough evidence.

   • A simple advisory or warning—not enough unless traffic actually drops by at least 50%.

   • Oil price jumps in markets—not enough evidence.