48-Hour Strait-of-Hormuz Closure Before 31 Dec 2025?
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Question – Will commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drop below 20 % of its 2024 daily average for a continuous 48-hour period before 31 December 2025?
Method
Baseline: 2024 mean daily transits of vessels ≥10 000 DWT carrying oil/products (Lloyd’s List Intelligence).
Closure condition: AIS-verified transits ≤20 % of that baseline for ≥48 consecutive hours.
YES on first occurrence meeting the condition; NO if none by cutoff.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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