Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2026?
73
Ṁ110Ṁ7.2k
resolved Mar 3
Resolved
YES

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market context
Iran
Middle East
Iranian Politics
Oil
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ445
2Ṁ176
3Ṁ126
4Ṁ114
5Ṁ108

People are also trading

Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026?
60% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
4% chance
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
3% chance
Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
40% chance
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
9% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
38% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
11% chance
Sort by:

Sorry, this should have resolved yes. I am simply not active enough on Manifold. Thanks to resolver

bought Ṁ10 YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-tell-ships-passage-through-strait-hormuz-not-allowed-2026-02-28/

The resolutiob criteria are met srveral times over now @mods

@MarcusAbramovitch is not reacting.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-tell-ships-passage-through-strait-hormuz-not-allowed-2026-02-28/

@CertaintyOfVictory @mods

@CertaintyOfVictory The strait is not severely restricted though? Maritime traffic shows ships going through the strait unbothered.

@DanzoAlerantos Iran is striking oil tankers attempting to pass the strait of Hormuz.

bought Ṁ20 NO

https://eadaily.com/en/news/2026/03/01/iranian-authorities-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-open-but-us-warships-may-be-attacked

@MarcusAbramovitch Can be resolved.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-to-know-about-key-waterway-that-iran-declared-closed-as-it-holds-military-drill/

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-close-parts-hormuz-strait-few-hours-during-military-drill-fars-news-agency-2026-02-17/

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 47% order

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-temporarily-closing-strait-of-hormuz-for-live-fire-drills-as-nuclear-talks-with-u-s-begin

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 37% order

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/17/iran-us-strait-of-hormuz-oil-nuclear-talks-geneva.html

People are also trading

Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026?
+22% 1d60% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
4% chance
Who will control the Strait of Hormuz on December 1, 2026?
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
3% chance
Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
40% chance
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?
9% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
38% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
11% chance