Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, Iran officially announces or demonstrably enforces a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a significant disruption to maritime traffic. Verification will be based on credible reports from major news outlets such as Reuters, the Associated Press, or official statements from the Iranian government. If no such closure occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint between Oman and Iran, through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil consumption—around 18 million barrels—passes. (reuters.com) Iran has previously threatened to close the strait in response to foreign aggression. In June 2025, Iranian lawmakers indicated that closing the Strait of Hormuz is among the strategic options Iran could employ if its national interests are threatened, particularly in scenarios involving U.S. military support for Israel. (reuters.com)

Considerations

Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have profound implications for global energy markets, potentially causing oil prices to surge and disrupting international trade. However, such an action would also adversely affect Iran's own economy, which relies heavily on oil exports through the strait. (reuters.com) Additionally, the presence of U.S. and allied naval forces in the region could deter or respond to any attempts to block this vital passage.