If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:

  • The focus is on any disruption from Iranian action that causes significant difficulty in getting oil through the strait.

  • The market may resolve to YES even if some ships are still getting through.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has confirmed that the market would resolve to YES if Iran specifically interdicts Western shipping, even if vessels from other nations (like Russia and China) are still allowed to pass.