Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip ends?
2
58
70
2025
28%
chance

About a month ago, Hamas and Israel reopened hostilities after tensions in the region reached a boiling point. Iran is known to be one of the major national supporters of Hamas, and an obvious way they might put pressure on Israel and its oil-thirsty Western allies might be to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, as they have in the past when threatened.

Thus do we ask: will Iran act to blockade shipping through the Strait of Hormuz before the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip is resolved, one way or the other?

The market resolves NO by default when Israel withdraws from, annexes, cedes or in any other way firmly settles who owns the Gaza Strip, including by handing it over to an international mandate or peacekeepers, and also resolves NO by default when Israel and Hamas cease hostilities.

It resolves YES if Iran officially and openly blockades the Strait of Hormuz, whether or not the officially stated reason is to inflict economic damage on the West in retaliation for the treatment of Palestine.

It resolves 50% if Iran deploys its navy to credibly threaten to block shipping through the strait, but is dissuaded.

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