Will the U.S. strike Iran’s oil or gas infrastructure by August 31, 2025?
2
100Ṁ70Sep 1
69%
chance
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Resolution Criteria:
What Counts as a Strike?
Any airstrike, missile strike, drone strike, cruise missile, or naval bombardment resulting in destruction or damage to Iranian civilian oil or gas infrastructure, including refineries, export terminals, civilian pipelines, or civilian storage facilities.
EXCLUDES exclusively military or nuclear sites.
Evidence
At least two credible sources (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) must clearly report: The U.S. carried out the strike and that it hit civilian oil or gas infrastructure.
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