Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
13
124
Ṁ889Ṁ270
2025
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
See also:
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
predicts NO
Someone pointed out that it's more interesting to ask this more as "how bad would a Trump win be on this front", so I made a couple of conditional markets:
https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/if-trump-gets-elected-will-prescrib
https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/if-trump-gets-elected-will-prescrib-4f892f44d041
Also, @DavidFWatson made this one: https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/conditional-on-republican-trifecta-7c89bb211833
Related questions
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
42% chance
Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?
41% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?
47% chance
Will someone have a court approved legal abortion in Texas before 2025?
50% chance
Will research show that crime has increased by 2045 due to abortion restrictions passed in 2021-2022?
42% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
16% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?
38% chance
Will any doctor go to prison for performing an abortion in Texas before 2025?
29% chance
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?
45% chance