Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?
9%
chance
This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.
M sold M$18 of YES16 days ago
wait, lones are gone
M bought M$20 of YES16 days ago
it does not appear so unlikely
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning "Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?" is a matching market
Enopoletus Harding 16 days ago
Also, allowing the GOP to sacrifice themselves on the abortion issue provides many electoral benefits for the Dems. Prohibiting that sacrifice is, thus, costly.
Enopoletus Harding 16 days ago
Literally 0% chance. Manchinema won't nuke the filibuster for this BS, and the Dems are losing the Senate until at least 2029 (2022/4 will be excellent R years, 2026 will be a good D year, but not enough to take back the Senate).