Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?
Basic
76
Ṁ2.4k2027
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that all 50 states must respect the right to an abortion within some time window (eg the first trimester). A law only guaranteeing the right to certain subsets of women (eg those whose health is in danger) will not count. This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-banning "Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?" is a matching market
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US Congress pass a bill nationally protecting abortion during the 119th Congress (2025-27)?
10% chance
Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
12% chance
Will someone have a court approved legal abortion in Texas before 2025?
45% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?
47% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
36% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?
41% chance
Will US congress pass a law that prohibits the states from prohibiting abortion before 2050?
59% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050?
56% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
40% chance
After France, will another country make abortion a constitutional right in 2024?
25% chance