Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
20
71
270
2027
42%
chance

"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.

The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.

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Gallup polling suggests most people don't want this, including most of the crucial demographic of independents [1].

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/507149/americans-favor-availability-abortion-pill.aspx

predicts YES

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