Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
54
closes 2027
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.
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https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz "Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?" is a matching market

It won't happen, but it's far, far more likely than Roe v. Wade being codified into Federal law in five years.
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9 YES payouts
Ṁ559
Ṁ150
Ṁ141
Ṁ111
Ṁ78
Ṁ52
Ṁ36
Ṁ9
31 NO payouts
Ṁ176
Ṁ110
Ṁ105
Ṁ69
Ṁ53
Ṁ52
Ṁ51
Ṁ43
Ṁ33
Ṁ32
Ṁ32
Ṁ25
Ṁ21
Ṁ21


















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