Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years? | Manifold

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

80

1kṀ7712

2027

5%

chance

1H

6H

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1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.

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bought Ṁ5,000 NO

Trump disavowed the idea. Don't see any route for this to happen.

How low does the week limit need to be to make this resolve YES? Would a 15-week national ban do it, for example?

To put this to the extreme, would a national ban on sex-selective abortions qualify, if it left all other abortions untouched?

without loans it is pointless, sorry

https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz "Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?" is a matching market

It won't happen, but it's far, far more likely than Roe v. Wade being codified into Federal law in five years.

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Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

Will US congress pass a law that prohibits the states from prohibiting abortion before 2050?

Will someone have a court approved legal abortion in Texas before 2025?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?

Will fewer than 26 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2026?

Related questions

Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?

Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?

Will there be a nationwide abortion ban, ever, in the US?

Will US congress pass a law that prohibits the states from prohibiting abortion before 2050?

Will someone have a court approved legal abortion in Texas before 2025?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2050?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2030?

Will fewer than 26 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2026?

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