Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
63
106
508
2027
16%
chance
This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.
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How low does the week limit need to be to make this resolve YES? Would a 15-week national ban do it, for example?

sold Ṁ19 of NO
without loans it is pointless, sorry
bought Ṁ20 of NO
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz "Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?" is a matching market
It won't happen, but it's far, far more likely than Roe v. Wade being codified into Federal law in five years.