What's the threshold here? The FDA tries it? A district court upholds it? A circuit court upholds it? The Supreme Court denies cert or upholds it?

@RiverBellamy If it goes all the way to the Supreme Court they must uphold it.

@JamesF So this market doesn't resolve until after the courts resolve the inevitable constitutional challenge? What if the court battle is still ongoing at the end of 2026?

@RiverBellamy Usually the courts will make an early decision about what the default is so if the courts say that the abortion pills must be legal until the ruling it would resolve no but if the pills must be illegal until the ruling it would resolve yes

@JamesF If you are going to judge a legal market like this, then please take the time to learn the proper legal jargon. Learn what "cert" means. "Default" is not how people describe any step of the process. Do you intend to resolve when a preliminary injunction is first issued or denied? Or when one goes into effect? I'm thinking about scenarios where a district court denies a preliminary injunction and is then reversed by a circuit court. Or scenarios where a district court issues a preliminary injunction and stays it pending appeal. And if you do intend to resolve the market based on some state of a preliminary injunction, then your first answer to me was very misleading, because it is unlikely that Trump will try this and the Supreme Court will issue a final decision within two years of Trump taking office again. Courts generally do not move that fast. Can you state in more precise legal terms what would cause a resolution which way? These are the terms you need to be thinking in if you want to have a coherent market about a legal case.

@RiverBellamy If a preliminary injunction that stops the shipping of abortion pills is in effect at the end of 2026 this will resolve yes, if the Supreme Court rules that the law applies to abortion pills this will obviously resolve yes, if a circuit court rules that it applies to abortion pills and the ruling is being applied nationwide this will resolve yes. Same with a circuit court. This will resolve no if you can still legally purchase abortion pills in states that haven’t individually banned them. I will not resolve this market early unless there is a Supreme Court decision for either side. If something is pending appeal and isn’t being applied yet then this resolves no. I want to reiterate that this is less about the specific legal action taken and more about a women’s ability to access abortion pills. The reason I specifically mention the Comstock laws is so all states individually banning them, or them found to be unsafe won’t affect the resolution.

@JamesF Ok, so this resolves based on what people can legally do on December 31, 2026, not on whatever might happen and get changed before then. That I think gives me enough clarity to bet on.