Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
14
688
2025
16%
chance

https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933

"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.

The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.


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I bet "No", but February is doing a lot of work there. See related market for what if they have until the end of the congressional term.

https://manifold.markets/MattLashofSullivan/conditional-on-republican-trifecta-db9c74952cc9?r=TWF0dExhc2hvZlN1bGxpdmFu

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