Valjean's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.46
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Valjean bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
20%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Will the anti-woke candidate get 8% or more in the Unitarian Universalist Association 2023 contested election?YESṀ1,000
- Will there be a new marathon world record at the Chicago Marathon in 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will Canada's December housing starts exceed 230,000 (seasonally adjusted annualized rate)?YESṀ1,000