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@marthinwurer did u read the discussion btw? He was back in Moscow a few times apparently before dying.
@SirSalty I really do feel this was misresolved - he clearly made it to Moscow alive and free prior to the expected close date.
I'm probably going to N/A if the creator doesn't respond. But they were active on Manifold 2 days ago so want to hear what they think @marthinwurer
@DavidChee I'd definitely appreciate waiting at least the 7 days in the community guidelines.
@DavidChee Don't you think it should be either a YES or N/A? He was in Moscow after the question was created, as pointed in some other comment threads
I assume this market was about the Wagner Rebellion, as it was created on the 24th. As thus, I think the spirit of the question was wether the advance of the Wagner forces would reach Moscow, which they did not. imo resolution should be NO, or N/A because its unclear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion
I instinctively bet this down on the news of his plane (ohh so mysteriously) crashing en route to St Petersburg from Moscow, but after thinking for a minute I'm pretty sure should resolve either YES (because Prighozin was alive and Free in Moscow, after the question creation) or N/A (because the market creator forgot about it). We now have official Russian government confirmation that Prighozin flew out of Moscow in his own private plane. While he (likely) did die afterwards, being able to fly places in your own private plane seems pretty darn free to me.
@Sanargama Because Yevgeny Prighozin made it to Moscow, alive and free. He's (likely) dead now, but he was clearly in Moscow, Alive/Free before that.
@Sanargama The point of this question was to see if after his coup, Yevgeny would at some point make it back to Moscow alive and free. That has been fulfilled.
@RobertCousineau Yeah but if he died right after it kinda defeats the point, besides we never heard or saw him in moscow
@RobertCousineau he died right after. Resolving it to NO goes in the spirit of the market.
@Sanargama no - Prighozin has been in Moscow off and on for a while: https://www.npr.org/2023/07/10/1186726748/putin-met-wagner-leader-prigozhin-after-failed-uprising
The uncertainty was if he was free. Him being on his private jet definitely implies so.
@RobertCousineau Why would the market be that low / haven't closed yet then? That's misleading. There is also no context provided (no mention of the coup) Just resolve it to N/A then
@Sanargama the market is that low because you've been betting it down and making passive aggressive comments, while I've been happy to buy cheap Yes shares.
I cannot resolve this market - I am not the creator.
This market is not resolved yet because the creator seems to log in around once a day, later in the day.
@Sanargama regarding context of the coup, look at when it was created. It's been open since June. The creator likely just forgot about it (no trades for a bit over a month)
@MrLuke255 fair point - I've added "(likely)" before dead. Further reason it should resolve Yes.
@RobertCousineau I've bet my whole balance on that, I hope it resolves yes soon... Or I won't have mana to feed my kids ๐