Founder of the Wagner Group.
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@MrLuke255 apparently they're doing a DNA check and if they claim that it came back positive i think we can resolve
if he pops up somewhere a year from now what can you do about it... a non-zero chance in this case of course.
@nickten @MrLuke255 I agree it should stay open until confirmed with DNA since they have the bodies apparently. Russia is not very trustworthy but what can we do?
@nickten all markets on Manifold should only pay out 99% rather than 100, because how can we ever be truly sure.
we get the best conformation we can, which in this case is the DNA result announcement.
if somehow russian government is in on the act, there's nothing we can do about that. other than sending @BTE on some spy FSB infiltration mission i guess.
and we can always harass admins to unresolve a year from now.
@higherLEVELING Oh right. The only reason the resolution changed is because I misreported too early. Will update to end of year.
@BTE IMO, given the DNA confirmation (according to Russia anyway), and no contradicting updates for a couple days afterwards, this is the point at which I think it makes sense to resolve YES (and of course with the plan of un-resolving if he turns out to be alive later).
@higherLEVELING does "likely" mean that it happened? or even 96% likely??
My assessment for this was like 85%
@ShadowyZephyr likely here means that they give it a high probability that this had occurred but cant say for certain
@ShadowyZephyr When the investigation finishes , it'll probably be announced how the plane went down and this will resolve yes. ill get my dollar back.