Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be killed during 2023?
resolved Aug 29

Founder of the Wagner Group.

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ThomasMurphy avatar
Thomas Murphypredicted YES

Whats needed after this point for this to resolve yes?

Mirek avatar
Quantum Gamblerpredicted YES

@ThomasMurphy Dentist must do tooth analysis

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Mirek Haha!!

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards

@Mirek Results are in. The are Russian prison grade dentures. For sure him.

MrLuke255 avatar
MrLuke255bought αΉ€5 of NO

What if on 31st it's still not confirmed?

nickten avatar
nickten πŸ’™πŸ’¦πŸ¬predicted YES

@MrLuke255 apparently they're doing a DNA check and if they claim that it came back positive i think we can resolve

if he pops up somewhere a year from now what can you do about it... a non-zero chance in this case of course.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES

@nickten @MrLuke255 I agree it should stay open until confirmed with DNA since they have the bodies apparently. Russia is not very trustworthy but what can we do?

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergpredicted NO

@nickten all markets on Manifold should only pay out 99% rather than 100, because how can we ever be truly sure.

nickten avatar
nickten πŸ’™πŸ’¦πŸ¬predicted YES

we get the best conformation we can, which in this case is the DNA result announcement.

if somehow russian government is in on the act, there's nothing we can do about that. other than sending @BTE on some spy FSB infiltration mission i guess.

and we can always harass admins to unresolve a year from now.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought αΉ€100 of YES

@BTE We still have the rest of the year .. no? 2023 isnt over.....

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES

@higherLEVELING Oh right. The only reason the resolution changed is because I misreported too early. Will update to end of year.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought αΉ€233 of YES

@BTE thanks.

Lorxus avatar
Lorxus Mathfoxpredicted YES

@HenriThunberg markets on math results exist

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES

@BTE IMO, given the DNA confirmation (according to Russia anyway), and no contradicting updates for a couple days afterwards, this is the point at which I think it makes sense to resolve YES (and of course with the plan of un-resolving if he turns out to be alive later).

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted YES
ShadowyZephyr avatar

@higherLEVELING does "likely" mean that it happened? or even 96% likely??

My assessment for this was like 85%

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr likely here means that they give it a high probability that this had occurred but cant say for certain

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr where did i say it was 100%?

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr lol chill. its a single

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr When the investigation finishes , it'll probably be announced how the plane went down and this will resolve yes. ill get my dollar back.