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TOLD YOU SO.

For arbitrage if you’re watching live

https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-kelvin-kitpum-break-the-marath?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u

Will Kelvin Kitpum break the marathon world record before 2024?

20% chance. The current world record is 2:01:09 and is held by Eliud Kipchoge. Kelvin Kiptum's PR is 2:01:25. If the WR is broken by another runner than Kiptum and Kiptum later breaks that new record, this resolves YES. Only times recorded on officially sanctioned courses count.

@NicoDelon Do you have a good place to watch? The official livestream isn't great.

@zjmiller Watching on NBC Chicago which isn’t awesome but ok

Kiptum himself says he won't break it in Chicago.

https://www.pd.co.ke/sports/ill-break-world-record-but-not-in-chicago-kelvin-kiptum-199984/

I’ll break world record, but not in Chicago - Kelvin Kiptum

I’ll break world record, but not in Chicago - Kelvin Kiptum %

@WilliamLane I wouldn’t put too much stock in this. He’d rather say he’s not aiming for it and break it than the other way around.

@NicoDelon I don't think that's right. If he were really going for it he'd have pacers start out with him at his target time. If he's announcing this he's not going out at WR pace, period. And if you don't set out at that pace, you don't casually end up in it.

@WilliamLane Has he said he won’t have pacers?

@NicoDelon he hasn't. But he tells the pacers what pace to go. If he's already saying "no WR at Chicago" then they'll probably start out no faster than 2:02 pace.

@WilliamLane My point is why would you trust what he says in that interview. Maybe that’s true, but you never know with these guys. Athletes play with journalists all the time.

Also, I think they had pacers in London but had he said he was aiming for such a time? He took everybody by surprise—in London!

@NicoDelon Perhaps you’re right! But my gut tells me that when it comes to world records athletes don’t simply announce they aren’t going for it and then suddenly do.

But hey, that’s why we can bet on these things!

@WilliamLane For the record I think you’re probably right and he won’t break WR this time, but I just wouldn’t infer it from the snippet above. Honestly I’m surprised he’s not announcing it, but maybe he’s really feeling undertrained for it. I thought he’d picked Chicago (flat and no Kipchoge) on purpose, to do a time trial. But maybe the prize money is enough! I’m still disappointed he and Kipchoge can’t be bothered to race each other though.

Oops, I misread it as Berlin and thought I was betting a sure thing.

@Valjean better luck next time.

Men's record would probably be out of the question, except that Kiptum is running. Since Kipchoge isn't he won't have too much competition, however. On the other hand we haven't seen a WR at Chicago since Khannouchi's in 1999.

On the women's side, things could get interesting. Last WR at Chicago was Kosgei in 2019; however this year's Berlin (2:11:XX) WR, by over two minutes, makes it unlikely we'll see another this year.

Ultimately I'd say 10% chance of new WR in either race.