Resolution Criteria

This market asks for predictions on how many years from January 1, 2025, it will take for the EU to federalize. The market will resolve to the number of years (rounded to the nearest year) between January 1, 2025, and the date when the EU officially becomes a federation.

For resolution purposes, "federalization" will be defined as:

• The formal adoption and implementation of a constitutional document explicitly establishing the EU as a federation

• The creation of a clear federal structure with defined powers distributed between the federal level and member states

• Recognition by international bodies and member states of the EU's status as a federation

If the EU has not federalized by January 1, 2075 (50 years from the start date), the market will resolve to 50+.

If the EU dissolves or fundamentally transforms into something other than a federation before federalizing, the market will resolve to 50+.