When will the EU cease to exist?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ1601
2160
2%
Up to 2028
25%
2029-2036
15%
2037-2049
17%
2050-2070
14%
2071-2104
6%
2105-2159
19%
2160 or after

Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).

If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Large differences with the related metaculus estimates

@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.

I like the Fibonacci buckets

@andri thank you! I'm moderately proud of my brain for coming up with the idea.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules