When will the EU cease to exist? | Manifold

When will the EU cease to exist?

32

Ṁ1.4kṀ7k

2160

2%

Up to 2028

8%

2029-2036

12%

2037-2049

20%

2050-2070

19%

2071-2104

18%

2105-2159

20%

2160 or after

Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).

If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.

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Large differences with the related metaculus estimates

@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.

I like the Fibonacci buckets

@andri thank you! I'm moderately proud of my brain for coming up with the idea.

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Will the EU cease to exist within the next 10 years?

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