When will the EU cease to exist?
29
1.4kṀ69502160
4%
Up to 2028
6%
2029-2036
10%
2037-2049
16%
2050-2070
24%
2071-2104
19%
2105-2159
21%
2160 or after
Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).
If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?
2% chance
Will any current member of the EU announce they are leaving before December 31st 2025
8% chance
Will the European Union become a country by 2100?
11% chance
Will the European Union lose another member by 2035?
30% chance
When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?
Will any nation leave the EU by 2025
5% chance
Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) before 2027?
9% chance
Will the EU federalize into one state by 2030?
3% chance
A current EU member state will announce a referendum to leave the EU by the end of 2025
14% chance
Will Hungary leave the European Union by the end of 2030?
15% chance