EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Question

Context:
The European Union is a unique political and economic union of 27 member states that balances deep integration with national sovereignty. Unlike most large federations or unions, the EU requires the unanimous agreement of all member states for decisions in several key areas — effectively granting each country a veto. The two most prominent examples are:

The Council of the European Union, which requires unanimity in areas such as foreign policy, taxation, and enlargement (admitting new members)

The EU treaty amendment process, which demands unanimity in the European Council and ratification by all member states

These requirements were originally designed to protect national sovereignty and ensure broad consensus. However, as the EU has expanded and taken on more global responsibilities, unanimity has increasingly been viewed as a barrier to effective, timely decision-making — especially in moments of crisis, when a single country can block collective action.

A complete removal of unanimity from EU law would represent a historic shift toward a more federal or integrated decision-making model, bringing the EU closer to the structure of most nation-states or federations, where even constitutional amendments do not require unanimous consent from subnational units.

Recent Developments:
Momentum toward removing unanimity is growing within EU institutions and among member states. The Conference on the Future of Europe (2022) put the extension of qualified majority voting at the top of the EU's reform agenda. In May 2023, nine EU member states launched the "Group of Friends on Qualified Majority Voting" to foster qualified majority voting in the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy. The group includes Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain. While politically contentious, especially among smaller states, these initiatives reflect a growing recognition that unanimity may no longer be viable in a larger, more geopolitically exposed EU.

The Crux: A Unanimous Vote to End Unanimity

The fundamental challenge lies in a structural paradox: ending unanimity requires treaty reform, which itself demands unanimous agreement. Every member state must therefore voluntarily surrender its veto power simultaneously. However, history suggests such paradoxes can be resolved when the status quo becomes sufficiently costly. Geopolitical crises, economic/competitive pressures, or the prospect of being marginalized within the union might shift the calculus.

Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2035 (CET), no unanimity requirement remains in any EU decision-making process, as codified in legally binding EU treaties, regulations, or official procedural rules. This includes all Council decisions, treaty revisions, or any other formal EU procedure that currently requires unanimous agreement among member states. It also covers all exceptional cases such as those involving fallback clauses, safeguard mechanisms, or emergency provisions. If even a single area of EU governance still requires unanimity by law in any scenario, the market resolves NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (11 traders, as of Dec 15, 2025).