Resolves positively if there is a substantial pan-European armed service created before 2040. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.

See the same market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-europeaneu-army-be-created-b

To resolve positively,

• the army would be under the command of a body with representation from a set of EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) with at least, as of 2023, 200 million in population.

• the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (this excludes a NATO army since NATO has US representation)

• the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.

• Members serving under this military command may be permanently assigned, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.

• The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval

• There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel under the pan-European military command at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000, Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.

• Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification from Creator:

  • Army under NATO control: An army formed under NATO control will resolve YES provided that the USA does not have direct authority in the chain of command.

  • US Non-participation Conditions: This applies if the USA has either de jure quit NATO, has its membership suspended, or is de facto dormant in terms of direct command roles.