Will a European or EU army be created before 2040?
21
73
1k
2039
49%
chance

Resolves positively if there is a substantial pan-European armed service created before 2040. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.

See the same market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-europeaneu-army-be-created-b

To resolve positively,

  • the army would be under the command of a body with representation from a set of EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) with at least, as of 2023, 200 million in population.

  • the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (this excludes a NATO army since NATO has US representation)

  • the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.

  • Members serving under this military command may be permanently assigned, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.

  • The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval

  • There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel under the pan-European military command at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000, Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.

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