Will a European or EU army be created before 2040?

1kṀ1614

2039

65%

chance

ALL

Resolves positively if there is a substantial pan-European armed service created before 2040. This might be an EU army or the army could be under the command of another institution.

See the same market for 2030: https://manifold.markets/B/will-a-europeaneu-army-be-created-b

To resolve positively,

the army would be under the command of a body with representation from a set of EU-27 European Union countries (or their successors) with at least, as of 2023, 200 million in population.
the commanding body would not have representation from the United States (this excludes a NATO army since NATO has US representation)
the commanding body may have representation from countries in Europe that are not members of the EU.
Members serving under this military command may be permanently assigned, or temporarily under its command, assigned by their respective national armies.
The command infrastructure would give orders directly to the military force rather than going through national army command subject to individual nations' approval
There must be at least 100,000 active service personnel under the pan-European military command at one time. By comparison, France currently commands 203,000, Germany 183,000, and the United States 1,400,000.

Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification from Creator:
- Army under NATO control: An army formed under NATO control will resolve YES provided that the USA does not have direct authority in the chain of command.
- US Non-participation Conditions: This applies if the USA has either de jure quit NATO, has its membership suspended, or is de facto dormant in terms of direct command roles.

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This question will still resolve YES if an army is formed under NATO control but the USA doesn't have a share in the direct authority over the chain of command, e.g., because the US de jure quit NATO, or if their membership is somehow suspended or de facto dormant.

@B is this functionally the same as "the US leaves NATO and European countries decide to make a go out it" ?

@JoshuaWilkes not exactly. the market could resolve positive in lots of other ways, like if some body separate to NATO is formed. and on the other hand, if the US leaves NATO but NATO doesn't actually create an armed service, the market would not resolve positive.

@B ah okay I understand.

I think that most people would say that there is currently a NATO army, in the sense that there are troops that are temporarily under NATO command assigned by their national armies.

@JoshuaWilkes would they
do you have a source for that?

@JoshuaWilkes OK, I looked it up via claude, and it tells me there are currently around 40,000 troops under NATO's command structure. So, for this market to resolve positive, there needs to be two developments:
1. US has to somehow withdraw from NATO or otherwise forego its right to influence NATO's military command. As of now that has not happened. We will see.
2. That 40,000 would have to get up 60,000 to 100,000.

@JoshuaWilkes hmm, a correction: not all those 40,000 (in the NATO Response Force) are currently in active service. I'm looking for 100,000+ troops in active service.