This market resolves YES if the European Union officially transforms into a federation before January 1, 2040, as evidenced by a ratified treaty, constitutional change, or official declaration establishing the EU as a federation.
A federation would involve a significant change to the EU's structure, with more centralized power at the EU level and a clearer division of competencies between the EU and member states.
Resolution will be based on official EU documents, treaties, or announcements that explicitly establish a federal structure.
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@TheAllMemeingEye most probable outcome based on the information today; however historical challenges may accelerate some processes. The real question indeed is: is there any chance the EU can ever become a federation?
@AndreaViselli personally I think it may be a mistake because the very fact that the EU doesn't have its own military/police means that it necessarily relies on being good for member states to voluntarily join and stay rather than force, if force becomes an option then there's significant risk it will become the dominant factor
@TheAllMemeingEye Indeed the EU points to have a joint military force - at least the majority of the constituent countries agree on this. The real problem is that this may be actually difficult to achieve, as all countries have different needs and fiscal space. There’s also the possibility that a different union will arise, perhaps with countries such as Hungary that will finally have to take a side. However, this is not the time for hesitation.