What will be true about the European Union before 2040? [add responses]

1.9kṀ1624

2039

76%

EU Parliament gets right of Legislative Initiative

61%

Broad consensus on CMU (Capital Markets Union) completion

60%

EU institution controlling an army of over 20,000 personnel

51%

S&D becoming the largest group in the EP

50%

EU Parliament gaining full co-decision powers on all EU legislation

50%

A new Treaty will reform the EU constitution (as Lisbon or Maastricht Treaties did)

49%

Abolition of unanimity in foreign policy

43%

Direct election of the Commission President by the population

41%

At least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists

40%

EU overtaking the USA in GDP (PPP)

37%

EU-wide UBI

33%

EU achieving net-zero carbon emissions

26%

EU institution controlling an army of over 100,000 personnel

24%

EU-wide minimum wage

20%

Nuclear weapons under the control of an EU institution

12%

EU finances more than 50% of its budget from self-collected taxes

Resolved

N/A

(to be resolved N/A)

Answers that were already true at the time of their creation are resolved with N/A.

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📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]

Will the European Union become a country by 2100?

11% chance

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

2% chance

Will a European or EU army be created before 2040?

65% chance

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

34% chance

Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?

26% chance

Will Germany leave the EU before 2040?

7% chance

Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?

44% chance

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

26% chance

Will any new countries join the EU before 2030?

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@Jan53274 just to confirm - the Constitution Treaty would not count, right?

Good point! I would only count Treaties that are ratified and implemented.

Why is 20k army below 100k army?

I thought the same. Correcting this is free mana. But I will not bet on my own market.

bought Ṁ250 YES

N/A"EU developing its own satellite navigation system" for obv reasons I'm a bit..

I can't seem to resolve it N/A at the moment. I'll do it as soon as it works again.

No mana to add this, but:

at least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists, in an additional member system (that is, these extra seats make the Parliamentary groups proportional to their vote share across the whole Union instead of at the national level)

I simply added Union-wide lists, because there are many alternatives to AMS

@Jan53274 bad idea

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📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]

Will the European Union become a country by 2100?

11% chance

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

2% chance

Will a European or EU army be created before 2040?

65% chance

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

34% chance

Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?

26% chance

Will Germany leave the EU before 2040?

7% chance

Will a European/EU army be created before 2030?

44% chance

Will the UK rejoin the European Union by 2040?

26% chance

Will any new countries join the EU before 2030?

67% chance

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