Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death of a Justice will count as a qualifying event for YES resolution (does not require a replacement to be confirmed).

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (28 traders, as of Apr 29, 2026).

Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

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2027

37%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Death of a Justice will count as a qualifying event for YES resolution (does not require a replacement to be confirmed).

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@strutheo in case of a resignation, does it just need to be announced in 2026, or become effective in 2026? Thanks!

@strutheo is it enough for a justice to leave or die in 2026, or does there need to be a replacement before the end of 2026? Literal reading of your question implies that replacement in 2026 is not needed for a resignation/retirement (as it will satisfy the "retire" part the question), but is needed for all other causes (death, impeachment, etc- to satisfy "be replaced" part of the question) - but I am guessing that is not what you meant?