Will Vikram Valame win Valame v. Trump?

Question

(in the end, after any appeals)

Updates

Case in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67515140/valame-v-biden/

Appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/68962710/valame-v-biden-et-al/

Supreme Court docket
https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/25-1259.html

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (16 traders, as of Jun 22, 2026).

Updates