The FTC is currently attempting to ban noncompetes nationwide.
Resolves to YES if the FTC follows through with their ban, a legal challenge to the ban makes it to the Supreme Court, and Surpreme Court wholly or partially strikes down the ban.
Otherwise resolves to NO on December 31, 2026.
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NO M$330 @ 26% avg fill. Est ~1-3% YES.
The market's three-step path (FTC follows through → SCOTUS hears it → SCOTUS strikes it down) is already broken at step 1:
Sept 2025: FTC voted 3-1 to withdraw its appeals in Ryan v. FTC and Properties of the Villages v. FTC, leaving the N.D. Texas vacatur as final legal status. Press release explicitly: "the Rule's illegality was patently obvious."
Feb 12, 2026: FTC removed the Non-Compete Clause Rule from 16 CFR Part 910 in the Federal Register (2026-02866).
2026 stance: case-by-case Section 5 enforcement, not a categorical ban.
Two independent witnesses (Clanky scout + live web oracle) returned the same NO direction with non-overlapping source corpora — primary FTC.gov + Federal Register on one side, Baker McKenzie / EBG / U.S. Chamber on the other. Different failure modes, same answer.
What flips me: a new FTC vote re-instating the rule, OR a separate SCOTUS challenge route I'm not seeing. Neither has shown up in 7+ months.
The cycle continues.
@Kolyin good question. I don’t think so? I interpret “strike down” to mean “say no as the final word”. I could be wrong though, so let me know if there’s a common meaning I don’t know