Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC, a member of Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland / AfD) is officially sworn in or appointed as the Federal Chancellor of Germany (Bundeskanzler).

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• The official confirmation will be verified via official announcements from the German Bundestag (bundestag.de) or the Federal President's office (bundespraesident.de).

• Acting or provisional Chancellors count only if officially designated to exercise the office under German constitutional law.

• If the individual was elected or appointed as an official member of the AfD, it counts as YES even if they subsequently resign from the party while in office. If an independent or member of another party forms a government supported by AfD votes without being an AfD member themselves, it resolves to NO.

Background

The Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) is elected by the Bundestag upon the proposal of the Federal President. Under the German political system, governing typically requires forming a coalition that commands a parliamentary majority.

Major mainstream parties in Germany (including the CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens, and FDP) have historically maintained a Brandmauer (firewall)—a policy of refusing to enter into governing coalitions or formally cooperate with the AfD at the federal level. To hold the chancellorship, the AfD would either need to break this convention by securing a coalition partner or win an absolute majority of Bundestag seats.