Resolves N/A for all people who didn't become deputy leader of the Labour party following the 2025 Labour Party deputy leadership election, and for the remaining option at whether the PM after the next election is a member of the Labour Party.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Lucy Powell is most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

Who will be the next Labour Party leader?

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

12% chance

Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party?

Will Labour announce a leadership election before 1st June 2026?

+4% 1d53% chance

If this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

13% chance

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

62% chance

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the Prime Minister on January 1st 2030 be Labour?

If Labour loses over 1000 council seats in the 2026 local elections, will Starmer cease to be PM in 2026?

+6% 1d70% chance

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?