Resolves N/A for all people who didn't become deputy leader of the Labour party following the 2025 Labour Party deputy leadership election, and for the remaining option at whether the PM after the next election is a member of the Labour Party.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Lucy Powell is most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

Who will be the next Labour Party leader?

Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party?

If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, will he become Labour leader in the next leadership election?

96% chance

Who will be an official candidate on the ballot for the Next UK Labour leadership election?

Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the Prime Minister on January 1st 2030 be Labour?

If this person is the Labour candidate for the 2026 Mayor of Greater Manchester election, will they win?

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?

29% chance

Will the winner of Labour's Deputy Leadership contest become Deputy Prime Minister within one year?

32% chance