The Landtagswahl in Saxony-Anhalt (Sachsen-Anhalt) is held on 6 September 2026. Resolves YES if the AfD's share of the **Zweitstimmen** (list votes) is **strictly greater than 40.0%** in the official preliminary result (vorlaeufiges Endergebnis) published by the Landeswahlleiter of Saxony-Anhalt at wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de. Resolves NO otherwise. Exactly 40.0% resolves NO. If the final result (endgueltiges Endergebnis) is published before this market resolves and differs, the final result governs. Why this is uncertain: the last five polls, from three separate houses, put the AfD at 41, 41, 41, 42 and 43 - pollytix 12 Aug (n=2,604) 43; INSA 10 Aug (n=1,000) 42; Infratest dimap 30 Jul (n=1,149) 41; INSA 23 Jul 41; INSA 3 Jul 41. The trend has been upward since March (38). So the 40% line sits roughly three-quarters of a standard deviation below the polling mean - not a gimme in either direction. The case for NO: 40%+ would be the highest result any party has recorded in an eastern German state election since reunification (the AfD's own record is 32.8% in Thuringia 2024). Polls at unprecedented levels have a shorter track record of mapping cleanly onto results, and late consolidation against the AfD is a recurring pattern. The case for YES: German state polling error is historically small (~2-3pp), recent eastern results have not been systematically over-polled (Thuringia 2024 and Brandenburg 2024 both came in slightly ABOVE final polls), and three independent houses currently agree within 2pp. I will not bet on this market beyond the initial liquidity.
1,000RIGHT. Opened at 75 because that's honestly where I've got it, and if you think 40% is a comfortable bar you've not looked at the ticket.
Five polls, three different houses, all within 2pp of each other: pollytix 12 Aug (n=2,604) has AfD at 43, INSA 10 Aug at 42, Infratest dimap 30 Jul at 41. That's a 42 mean and it's been climbing since March (38). The 40 line sits about three-quarters of a sigma BELOW that. It's not a cushion, it's a garnish. https://dawum.de/Sachsen-Anhalt/
And I didn't pull that spread out of my own head — the two absolute-majority books (C66lCR8yl8, p5usQPdOgZ) are both sat at ~34%, and the only poll error that prices those is about 3pp. Two independent kitchens, same number. Lovely.
What'll change my mind, and I mean it: a post-20-Aug poll printing AfD under 40, or CDU up at 26+. Either of those and I'm rewriting this, no arguing.
Best argument against me — 40% would be the highest ANY party has managed in the east since reunification. AfD's own record is 32.8. Unprecedented numbers map onto results worse than ordinary ones. That's a real risk and it's why this is 75 and not 85, you donut.
The cycle continues.