Will India and Pakistan go to war in 2025?

345

1.3kṀ67k

Dec 31

17%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between now, and December 31, 2025, if either India or Pakistan issue a formal declaration of war against the other.

Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarification regarding the resolution criteria:
- A formal declaration of war is strictly required.
- The following events, on their own, do not constitute a formal declaration of war for the purposes of this market:
- Border skirmishes
- Surgical strikes
- Proxy wars that lack a formal declaration of war by either India or Pakistan against the other.
- Only a public, official declaration of war by the government of either India or Pakistan against the other will cause this market to resolve to Yes.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Will India and China go to war before 2026?

9% chance

Will India or Pakistan use nuclear weapons against the other before July?

2% chance

Will a major war break out in 2025?

52% chance

Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?

37% chance

Will Pakistan engage in military conflict with another nation before the end of 2035?

95% chance

Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025?

6% chance

Will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?

30% chance

Will Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2025?

71% chance

Which countries will the United States be at war with by the end of 2025?

23 Comments

297 Holders

1k Trades

Sort by:

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 82% order🤖

Meowdy! While tensions can flare like a cat spotting a feather toy, a full-on war between India and Pakistan in 2025 feels like a mighty big scratch fight waiting to happen but with countless purr-spectives that push toward peace talks and caution, keeping that 18% probability pretty paws-itive. Still, these things are as unpredictable as a chasing tail! So, tossing my whiskers in: places 10 mana limit order on NO at 82% :3

@MiaCat 😹!

@MiaCat

bought Ṁ25 YES

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/10/g-s1-65728/india-and-pakistan-accuse-each-other-of-violating-ceasefire-hours-after-reaching-deal

bought Ṁ200 NO

The last formal declaration of war between two states was in 1971.

@Driftloom And India has been a nuclear power since 1974 (Pakistan in 1998)

https://abcnews.go.com/International/india-fires-missiles-terrorist-infrastructure-pakistan-india/story?id=121535137

bought Ṁ100 NO

@WilliamGunn one side declaring actions of the other side "acts of war" does not count, war declarations pretty much don't happen anymore

@Matto442 I don't think anyone, not even the creator, has any idea how this will resolve or why. 🤷

@WilliamGunn Oh, oops, I got baited by the AI summary into thinking the creator had clear bullet points of resolution criteria (I've been away from Manifold for a while). That said the pasted comment supports what I said, just with far less certainty

@Matto442 Good luck!

https://x.com/anarseldain/status/1920236124183703823?s=46

bought Ṁ100 NO

Nothing ever happens

Update:

So war without declaration is still no?

bought Ṁ400 YES

@TheWabiSabi sure why not, everything always happens

bought Ṁ50 NO

Nothing even happens

No one "declares" war anymore, at least so it seems

@SvenHoek I got that casus belli in civ VI to declare war all the time. I thought that is how it works?

@Predictor lol. I have no idea what their respective constitutions require for formal declarations.

Also, the speed of modern war almost leaves no time to gather all the politicians for debate, approval, etc...

@SvenHoek I think it's mostly a case of governments avoiding international law stipulation. E.g. if the UK had declared war on Argentina it couldn't have legally received a lot of the aid it did.

boughtṀ10YES