Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between now, and December 31, 2025, if either India or Pakistan issue a formal declaration of war against the other.
Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarification regarding the resolution criteria:
A formal declaration of war is strictly required.
The following events, on their own, do not constitute a formal declaration of war for the purposes of this market:
Border skirmishes
Surgical strikes
Proxy wars that lack a formal declaration of war by either India or Pakistan against the other.
Only a public, official declaration of war by the government of either India or Pakistan against the other will cause this market to resolve to Yes.
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Meowdy! While tensions can flare like a cat spotting a feather toy, a full-on war between India and Pakistan in 2025 feels like a mighty big scratch fight waiting to happen but with countless purr-spectives that push toward peace talks and caution, keeping that 18% probability pretty paws-itive. Still, these things are as unpredictable as a chasing tail! So, tossing my whiskers in: places 10 mana limit order on NO at 82% :3
@WilliamGunn one side declaring actions of the other side "acts of war" does not count, war declarations pretty much don't happen anymore
@WilliamGunn Oh, oops, I got baited by the AI summary into thinking the creator had clear bullet points of resolution criteria (I've been away from Manifold for a while). That said the pasted comment supports what I said, just with far less certainty
@Sebastianus Thanks, but that's unfortunately not helpful. Only you know what you mean here, and I'm pretty uncertain about even that. Could I donate some amount for you to delete this, ahead of the inevitable mod N/A, so it won't trick new people into betting on it?
@SvenHoek I got that casus belli in civ VI to declare war all the time. I thought that is how it works?
@Predictor lol. I have no idea what their respective constitutions require for formal declarations.
Also, the speed of modern war almost leaves no time to gather all the politicians for debate, approval, etc...
@SvenHoek I think it's mostly a case of governments avoiding international law stipulation. E.g. if the UK had declared war on Argentina it couldn't have legally received a lot of the aid it did.