Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between now, and December 31, 2025, if either India or Pakistan issue a formal declaration of war against the other.

• Update 2025-05-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following clarification regarding the resolution criteria:

  • A formal declaration of war is strictly required.

  • The following events, on their own, do not constitute a formal declaration of war for the purposes of this market:

  • Border skirmishes

  • Surgical strikes

  • Proxy wars that lack a formal declaration of war by either India or Pakistan against the other.

  • Only a public, official declaration of war by the government of either India or Pakistan against the other will cause this market to resolve to Yes.