Will there be a military conflict between China and the United States by the end of 2025?
Plus
13
Ṁ327Dec 31
12%
chance
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1W
1M
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Prediction for 2025 made by Gen. Michael A. Minihan (link)
This market resolves as "Yes" if there is any direct combat between United States and China forces. Note that both sides need to be directly involved in the conflict (i.e there needs to be an exchange of bullets/rockets).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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