Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in the Americas before 2030?
12
59
250
2030
91%
chance

North or South America.

"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.

Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.


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Are British Overseas Territories and Aruba and Curaçao included in the question? If not, I don't understand why it's so high. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_the_Americas#Future_legislation )

predicts NO

@adssx Wow, good spot! Reality sure is messy 😅 Since they're free to establish their own legislation on these matters, I'm inclined to count them all, with the caveat that if their parent governments forced them to legalize it wouldn't count. Forced = decided the legality for them.