Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
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2030
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Must qualify in such a way that a country that is or currently would be dark blue on this Wikipedia map would become red on this map. A simple loss of protections does not qualify for the purposes of this question; it must be an inversion from legal to banned.


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If a country (or US state) changes to dark purple (i.e. Same-sex marriage recognized with full rights when performed remotely or abroad), does that resolve as YES?

predicts YES

@adele Ooo good question; it gets at an important distinction about "Will they recognize marriages that have already occurred or will they strip pre-existing recognition?" I'm inclined to say that resolves YES, but it's not clear cut. How do you and other bettors feel?

predicts YES

@Stralor to be clear on one minutiae though: I wouldn't count a US state (or other similar nonsovereign entity) for a YES resolution, unless it caused a change in the country's designation.

bought į¹€20 of NO

@Stralor I don't have a particular opinion on how it resolves in that case.

So if Obergefell v Hodges was partially repealed and states were no longer required to perform same-sex marriages, but were still required to recognize them, that would not suffice to resolve NO?

predicts YES

@adele If Obergefell were overturned, it wouldn't be enough for this question's purposes. The RFMA would also have to be repealed in Congress or otherwise struck down by the Supreme Court or a constitutional amendment. Already many localities refuse to offer same-sex marriage licenses against federal enforcement, so the practical application is muddied already. This question is more about a fundamental loss of rights. If that doesn't occur then it doesn't cause this to resolve YES.

predicts YES

@Stralor Moreover, this question is about banning, which I feel is a higher threshold, so I'll tweak the description a bit.