Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
33
1kṀ11362030
32%
chance
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Must qualify in such a way that a country that is or currently would be dark blue on this Wikipedia map would become red on this map. A simple loss of protections does not qualify for the purposes of this question; it must be an inversion from legal to banned.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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