Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030?
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2030
60%
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"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.

! Doesn't need to qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, since this specific question allows for partial legalization for specific populations. Instead it's maybe useful to compare with this map. !

For this question, a country is a state party within the United Nations System or recognised by at least one UN member state. And: a Muslim-majority country is a country with 50% or more of the population counted as Muslim by reliable sources when the decision to legalize same-sex marriage union was decided.


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How do we define "Muslim-majority country"? It's an issue mostly for Eritrea (sources disagree on the majority religion, but homosexuality is illegal there, so they're unlikely to legalize same-sex marriage before 2030), Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chad, and Albania.

I see two options:

We can choose a single source and stick to it, for instance, Pew 2017 (but it's severely outdated; for example, it gives Bosnia as 40% Muslim based on a 2001 source, whereas the 2013 census says it's 51% Muslim).

Or we say, "For this question, a Muslim-majority country is a country with 50% or more of the population counted as Muslim by reliable sources when the decision to legalize same-sex marriage union was voted." In that case, if, let's say, Bosnia and Herzegovina (Muslim-majority today) becomes non-Muslim majority in a few years (according to an official census or another reliable source such as a reputable polling institute) then even if BiH later legalizes same-sex marriage, it would not resolve as YES.

@adssx I like the second. I'll add it

predicts NO
predicts YES

@adssx well the market has a long way to run and IMO it was very undervalued before.

But I noticed you have bet very little mana, if you think I'm wrong this is a good opportunity for you!

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes I don't know much about LGBT rights in the Balkans, so I have low conviction. I was more curious to see whether I missed something obvious or not. I was surprised to learn that the Kosovo constitution and gov were quite progressive on LGBT issues. Northern Cyprus (included in the criterion) looks like another possibility: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Northern_Cyprus

Most Muslim-majority countries ban same-sex relationships. Those that don't do not even recognize civil partnerships.

Kosovo (not fully recognized, so not sure if included in this question) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (with just 51% of Muslims so could not sure if it will keep its Muslim-majority until 2030) are the only two I can imagine legalizing same-sex unions by 2030 because all their European neighbors are legalizing same-sex unions, one after another, and they want to join the EU and maybe appear more LGBT-friendly. Still, it seems unlikely to happen...

predicts YES

@Stralor had better clarify whether Kosovo counts!

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes I think that depends on wikipedia

predicts YES

@Stralor looks like the relevant pages already treat Kosovo as a qualifying country, so I'm content

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes @Stralor: the relevant Wikipedia page ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Europe ) lists Kosovo among "Partially-recognised and unrecognised states". So, unless explicitly mentioned in the resolution criteria, I wouldn't consider that Kosovo counts.

predicts NO

@adssx I think we should count it. it's a pretty significant "partial" recognition

predicts YES

@Stralor can you put your decision into the description for full clarity?

(If indeed you've made a decision)

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes I've added this, hope it seems fair:

The question of partially recognized states has come up. We're going to count them if they're self-governed (Kosovo, f. ex.), but not subnational states (e.g. Greenland). The key point is if they're able to decide their own policy here.

predicts YES

@Stralor I think this needs a little workshopping. Greenland is clearly different from Kosovo in terms of 'subnational'-ness (in a way that I think is satisfying for this question. However, like many subnational entities Greenland *does* determine its own domestic marriage laws.

Could just take that line out?

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes done. not convinced that's entirely true; Denmark makes edicts that Greenland must follow and change their policies by. but I'm not sure about marriage laws so that's fair, tho I suspect Greenland is subject to EU regulations via Denmark

predicts NO

@Stralor (so are any EU countries really sovereign anymore?)

predicts YES

@Stralor well, specifically Greenland is not really an EU member (although it often looks like one).

More generally, I would argue that the sovereignty that states 'surrender' to the EU is done in ways that are fundamentally voluntary in nature (can often opt out, without or with costs, and can leave the EU), whereas the relationship between countries and their subnational territories is quite different. Limits on (often extensive) autonomy are much harder and the junior partner can't simply end the relationship unilaterally (in most cases? I think free associations are an exception here)

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes well put!

predicts NO

@Stralor I would suggest a clearer definition than rhe subjective "well governed". Maybe "If they are recognized by at least 50 UN states".

@adssx any criteria that exclude Taiwan from the categories of 'state' or 'country' are poor criteria

(and, specifically for this series of markets, would exclude the only country in Asia that has legalised same-sex marriage)

predicts NO

@adssx was "well governed" a typo, or was it a misreading? I suppose "self-governed" isn't perfectly objective. I could replace with "sovereign"

predicts NO

@Stralor Oops indeed sorry. Still I'm not satisfied with "self governed". The British overseas territories are self governed but they're not "subnational states": they're not part of the UK.

If we want to include Taiwan we can just lower the threshold from 50 to 10 (Taiwan has 12) or "more than 5" (Abkhazia and South Ossetia have exactly 5). Or just "at least one".

predicts YES

@adssx British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies are clearly subordinate to the British Government though; no one is confused that they might be independent states.

If I were @Stralor, what I might do is say 'UN member states plus a short list that is relevant to this market' (easier because we are dealing with non-global markets)

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes "no one is confused that they might be independent states": and yet @Stralor is "inclined to count them all": https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-samesex-marriage-be-newly-lega#wxGSxtsrX0ZKGOtzjwiS

We should strive for consistency between all these related questions. Their title says "country", so it shouldn't include "territories" (Greenland, British Overseas Territories, tribes, etc.).

I would say "States that are state parties within the United Nations System" (this includes Kosovo and Palestine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition#States_that_are_state_parties_within_the_United_Nations_System ) and maybe "Non-UN member states recognised by at least one UN member state" (Abkhazia, Northern Cyprus, Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, South Ossetia, and Taiwan). Of course, in each case, within the relevant geographic or demographic group.

predicts YES

@adssx this does look like something I'm amenable to

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes Is this preferable to using all but the sub-nationals on the list here ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Europe )?

predicts NO

@Stralor I think it is preferable compared to referring to 5 different Wikipedia articles (Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania and the Americas), especially for "Muslim-majority countries" that don't have such a Wikipedia page. We would have the same definition for all these questions: "For this question, a country is a state party within the United Nations System or recognised by at least one UN member state".

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