Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Europe before 2030?
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YES

Including Russia, Turkey, and any other transcontinental countries I may have missed.

"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any new country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.

Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.


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https://www.politico.eu/article/european-court-of-human-rights-same-sex-unions-poland-breach-convention-lgbtq/

This ECHR decision that countries part of the Council of Europe have to provide some form of recognition and protection to same-sex couples.

Looks like Greece, Liechtenstein, or Czechia may legalize it in 2024: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Europe#Future_legislation

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