Including the Middle East and transcontinental countries such as Russia and Turkey.
"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.
Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.
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https://apnews.com/article/thailand-marriage-same-sex-equality-law-9a2f9da6b5b36a1cf70dee5caec70e23
"The bill now goes to the Senate, which rarely rejects any legislation that passes the lower house, and then to the king for royal endorsement. This would make Thailand the first country or region in Southeast Asia to pass such a law and the third in Asia, after Taiwan and Nepal."
Why is it so high? Is it because "In March 2023, the Supreme Court of Nepal ordered the Nepali government to legally recognize a same-sex marriage performed overseas and to legislate for same-sex marriage."?
But isn't this a case of "Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal"?
@adssx seems pretty likely Japan will legalise this decade, even if it takes a few years https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-court-rules-that-not-allowing-same-sex-marriage-is-state-2023-06-08/
@Ramble The issue is that Article 24 of the Japanese Constitution states: "Marriage shall be based only on the mutual consent of both sexes and it shall be maintained through mutual cooperation with the equal rights of husband and wife as a basis." so many legal scholars argue that same-sex unions cannot be legalized without a constitutional amendment. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_Japan#Constitution )
Stil lper Wikipedia says: "The Japanese constitution is the oldest unamended constitution in the world. It has not had any amendments to its text in more than 70 years. [...] Article 96 provides that amendments can be made to the Constitution if approved by super majority of two-thirds of both houses of the Diet, and then by a simple majority in a popular referendum."
Public opinion is rapidly changing in Japan on this issue and about two-thirds of the public supports same-sex marriage, but "only 9% of LDP candidates supported same-sex marriage" and "However, the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power almost continuously since 1958, remains opposed to it".
Besides the difficult process to amend the Constitution, the very fact of amending it looks like a taboo in Japan, so it seems unlikely to me. But it's true that it can happen by 2030.
The alternative is that courts will make a decision, as it happened in the US. Per the Reuters article you cited: "Five rulings on same-sex marriage have been handed down in Japan over the past two years - two concluding the ban was unconstitutional, one saying it was not, and two, including Thursday's, upholding the ban but raising other rights concerns."
These are district courts (aka, first instance). We know that in one case (Tokyo District Court Nov 2022), the plaintiff couples appealed. I don't know how it works in Japan but I assume we may have a decision from the Tokyo High Court (appellate court) next year. And then a Supreme Court decision in 2026? So it's about guessing whether the Supreme Court will take a literal approach and defer the decision to the government, or be more activist and legalize same-sex unions. I would say it's 50/50. Not 6/94 :)
@adssx Agree Japan is lower than 80%, but it's one of many routes.
Just looked into the Nepal case - same-sex marriage is still neither currently legal nor has a date by which it will be, and certainly wasn't at the point of market creation. Recognition of a marriage performed abroad doesn't turn a country deep blue on that wiki page (this page puts Nepal in the same category as Israel now, which seems correct https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_same-sex_marriage ). It seems safe to say that P(Nepal legalises soon) >85%, but the legal route for this is surprisingly hard https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/10/10/nepal-courts-refuse-register-same-sex-marriages .