Will polygamous marriage be legal in any US state by 2035?
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2035
40%
chance

They must be able to get married in that state, not just have their marriage recognized from elsewhere.

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bought Ṁ0 of YES

Does this require the legalization of getting poly-married in that state, or merely the recognition of poly-marriages that occurred in some other country where it was legal?

predicts YES

@JonathanRay Must be able to get married in that state.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Betting hard on NO for this one since polygamy (unlike gay marriage, which I assume some are using as a touchstone) isn't just a matter of political acceptance followed by changing a few words in otherwise very standard marriage laws - the whole institution of modern marriage and the entire body of law associated with it is predicated on marriages having exactly 2 participants, and changing it to allow for N participants would be a massive legal headache. In order to justify the effort there would have to be way more in the way of serious pro-polygamy advocacy and outside of a few quite small cultural bubbles I don't think the will is there at all to pull that off in the next 12 years.

bought Ṁ13 of YES

Acceptance of polyamory is pretty high among Gen Z and younger millennials (at least in my experience) so I'd be pretty surprised if polyamorous marriage wasn't legalized in a progressive state like Vermont or Hawaii or Massachusetts by 2035.

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