NFL Week 8 - Prop Bets
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99%
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
80%
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
8%
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
2%
MVP Favorite Changes (Patrick Mahomes)
2%
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
1%
Fake Punt
Resolved
YES
Safety Scored
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Resolved
YES
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Resolved
YES
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 40+ points
Resolved
YES
Pick Six
Resolved
YES
35% or higher Kick Return rate
Resolved
YES
Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)
Resolved
YES
At least one missed kicking extra point attempt
Resolved
YES
A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points
Resolved
YES
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Resolved
YES
Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)
Resolved
YES
All Starting Rookie QBs lose

2025-26 NFL Season - Week Eight

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

  • At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    • Favorite based on DraftKings closing line

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Based on closing DraftKings lines

  • A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    • If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season

    • Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)

    • Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)

  • Fake Punt Attempt

    • If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting

  • Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    • The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout

    • Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases

      • No Injury

      • If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)

      • Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs

  • Fat Guy Touchdown

    • A player that would be considered fat scores a TD

    • All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)

      • Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)

  • Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)

    • Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)

  • A 4th and 11+ is converted

    • First downs as the result of penalties do not count

    • This logic applies similar to any other prop like this

      • "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play

  • Top 5 Super Bowl favorites

    • If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%

  • Will a championship belt change teams?

  • In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

@StopPunting who else Jonathan Taylor

Funnily, Breece Hall (a running back) scored 3 TDs, but one of them was a passing TD, so it doesn't count

sold Ṁ4 YES

@ChristopherRandles Whoops, didn't notice Bucs-Saints kicked off at 4:05pm ET instead of 4:25 pm ET :P

@Calibrate Sorry. Been close to making that mistake before.

@ChristopherRandles No problem - it happens!

bought Ṁ600 YES

4th and Goal at BAL 1 stopped in CHI @ BAL

reposted

Week 8!

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 2% order

This is so brazen but I'm doing it

sold Ṁ500 NO

Ah, shoot, goofed up my probabilities - let's try that again

bought Ṁ100 NO

Luckily no one is up at this ungodly hour - I was somehow off by a factor of 10 in my calculations :P

Pentagonal numbers:

(sequence A000326 in the OEIS).

Including 0

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