50% chance. A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023. @EliezerYudkowsky spends a significant portion of his time attempting to publicize his views that artificial intelligence is a threat to humanity's future. This question attempts to determine whether his efforts are becoming effective at bringing the AI safety issue into mainstream policy discussion, or whether his sometimes aggressive rhetoric harms his message. This market resolves to YES if Yudkowsky or any of his unique ideas appear during the debate while it is LIVE on-air. It resolves N/A if the debate is cancelled or posponed past September 30, 2023, and NO otherwise. The following are examples of circumstances that resolve to YES: Anyone saying Yudkowsky's name Any mention of an idea that was firstly or is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky, such as "some fear that a machine that generates paperclips could destroy the world" Any mention of Yudkowsky's books, writings, or appearances, such as "an article was published in TIME magazine threatening nuclear strikes" The following are insufficient to resolve to YES: Questions about AI in general, such as "how will you ensure that humans are not displaced by ChatGPT?" "There were 1000 signatures to a letter" (unless Yudkowsky wrote the letter and garnered support for it) General statements about ideas that were developed before Yudkowsky's time, such as "an AI takeover could occur" Statements that any machine learning researcher would make, such as "deep learning optimizes for loss functions" If it isn't obvious whether a statement is uniquely attributed to Yudkowsky and there is controversy among bettors, I will feed the transcript of the debate into Claude 2 and ask the model to provide its opinion over whether any ideas that Yudkowsky uniquely developed were discussed in the debate, and the model's answer will be canonical.

Resolved NO. A GOP Presidential debate will be held on August 23, 2023. This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Ramaswamy must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as he is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all he did was meet expectations and even if he didn't attend. If CNN does not post any articles about the debate before August 31, 2023 at 11:59:59pm EDT, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A. RESOLUTION: A search of CNN.com was conducted and there were no articles that stated that Ramaswamy won the debate at any position. One opinion piece including a number of commenters had the first commenter state that Haley won the debate. A second piece grading the debate suggested that Haley won the debate and that Ramaswamy lost. Some comments included links to X, to videos of CNN television broadcasts, links to articles on other sites, and polls conducted of voters. None of these were considered because those sources were not in the resolution criteria. Because Haley was clearly the consensus winner from the CNN commenters, this market resolves to NO. Keep the conversation going at https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-septem !