Will Nikki Haley win the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?

US Politics•Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Trump•Republican Party•2024 Republican Primaries•Debate•Nikki Haley

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A GOP Presidential debate will be held on September 27, 2023.

This market resolves to YES if Nikki Haley wins the debate, according to CNN.com. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The most prominently featured article about the debate, linked from the homepage and posted the day after its conclusion, will be used as reference. "Live updates" about the debate are excluded. If the article covers "5 winners and 5 losers" or something similar, then Haley must be listed first (or last, if the order is counting down) in the list of winners. As long as she is referred to as the sole or the most prominent winner, the reason is irrelevant, even if all she did was meet expectations and even if she didn't attend.

If CNN does not post any articles about the debate on September 28, 2023, if none of the articles about the debate offer an opinion as to who won or lost, or if the debate is cancelled, then the market resolves to N/A.

NOTE: By these criteria, Nikki Haley was the winner of the August 23, 2023 debate and, if such a market had existed, that market would have resolved to YES.

RELATED MARKETS:

Exactly zero or one of the seven "Will X win the September 27 debate" questions will resolve to YES.

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RESOLUTION: The only two candidates referred to as "winners" in any CNN article were Haley and Trump.

However, the CNN homepage, for several hours on the morning of September 28, stated that Trump was the winner in the headline:

The resolution criteria states that only zero or one of the seven markets can resolve to YES, and also that the most prominent article would be used for resolution. The headline stating that Trump won is clearly more prominent than the mentions that Haley won in a different article, so this market resolves to NO.

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RESOLUTION: The only two candidates referred to as "winners" in any CNN article were Haley and Trump.

However, the CNN homepage, for several hours on the morning of September 28, stated that Trump was the winner in the headline:

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski why not make this into a multiple choice market where the winner resolves to 100%? It would save you a lot of mana

The following article clearly states that Haley won:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/28/opinions/debate-analysis-republican-winner/index.html

Opinion: The GOP debate’s biggest losers | CNN

Trump skipped the second Republican presidential debate in California on Wednesday night as seven competitors took the stage. Our contributors analyze the winners and losers.

However, it was not the most prominently featured article as the criteria require, and this article is titled "the debate's biggest losers."

Early in the morning, a headline on the front page stated that Trump won the debate.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@SteveSokolowski Also, there is a big difference between an opinion article, which represents the opinion of a specific author, and a regular article, which represents the opinion of CNN.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

CNN desperately wants reasonable seeing Republicans to lead the party even though it's always actually the Ramaswamy's. As such, CNN will find a way to support the narrative that Haley won the debate even though no one is going to vote for her.