A GOP debate will be held on September 27, 2023.

During the August 23, 2023 debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was the center of attention, being attacked multiple times by the other candidates. This market resolves to YES if Ramaswamy is again attacked more often than everyone else, and NO otherwise.

To resolve the market, the debate's transcript will be downloaded from Fox News (or, if not available, from another mainstream media outlet.) The market's resolution will be delayed until a transcript is available if necessary.

The transcript will be provided to Anthropic's Claude 2, and the model will decide the outcome of this market. The market will resolve to whatever word Claude 2 outputs.

Additional ways the market can resolve to N/A include if the debate is cancelled, if the debate is postponed until after September 30, if the model is taken offline, if a paywall that prevents free access to the model is implemented, or if some other technical problem occurs that prevents the model from coming to a clear answer without significantly modifying the prompt.

The prompt is the following:

"I've attached a transcript of a debate. Please review the transcript and determine which candidate was attacked the most often. You must decide upon exactly one candidate, even if the number of attacks between the candidates is close.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy the candidate who received the most attacks? If so, answer YES. If not, answer NO. If you encounter a problem and are at least 95% confident that you don't understand enough to answer correctly, then answer N/A. You must output exactly and only one token: YES, NO, or N/A."

OTHER PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:

• https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-or-his-ideas

• https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-be-attacked-th

• https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-rap-during-the-c1add16f63fa

• https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-mike-pence-speak-the-most-duri

• https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-september-27-2023-republic

RESOLUTION: As the criteria stated, I input the transcript of the debate, found at https://thepavlovictoday.com/read-second-republican-debate-transcript-september-27-2023/, into the model. Fox did not publish a transcript; so this was the only one available.

The model outputted NO three consecutive times. When asked to explain its reasoning, it provided the following output:

"Based on my review of the debate transcript, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was the candidate attacked the most often. Here is my analysis:

• Nikki Haley directly attacked Vivek Ramaswamy a few times, criticizing his past business dealings with China and his use of TikTok.

• However, other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie also received multiple direct attacks:

• Nikki Haley and Tim Scott both criticized DeSantis' policies and record on energy/fracking in Florida.

• Christie attacked Trump (who was not present) multiple times for dividing the party and country.

• Candidates also criticized each other's records indirectly, like Haley vs. Scott on taxes/spending.

• But the attacks on Vivek seemed fewer and more narrowly focused on his China ties and social media use.

• Other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie drew attacks on broader policy issues and records from multiple candidates.

So based on the number and breadth of attacks, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was attacked the most often in this debate. The attacks seemed more frequent and widespread towards other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie. Therefore, I answered NO."

My opinion or the opinion of any human is irrelevant to the resolution of this market, so the market resolves to NO.