Will Vivek Ramaswamy be attacked the most during the September 27, 2023 Republican Presidential debate?
36
329
710
resolved Sep 29
Resolved
NO

A GOP debate will be held on September 27, 2023.

During the August 23, 2023 debate, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy was the center of attention, being attacked multiple times by the other candidates. This market resolves to YES if Ramaswamy is again attacked more often than everyone else, and NO otherwise.


To resolve the market, the debate's transcript will be downloaded from Fox News (or, if not available, from another mainstream media outlet.) The market's resolution will be delayed until a transcript is available if necessary.

The transcript will be provided to Anthropic's Claude 2, and the model will decide the outcome of this market. The market will resolve to whatever word Claude 2 outputs.

Additional ways the market can resolve to N/A include if the debate is cancelled, if the debate is postponed until after September 30, if the model is taken offline, if a paywall that prevents free access to the model is implemented, or if some other technical problem occurs that prevents the model from coming to a clear answer without significantly modifying the prompt.

The prompt is the following:

"I've attached a transcript of a debate. Please review the transcript and determine which candidate was attacked the most often. You must decide upon exactly one candidate, even if the number of attacks between the candidates is close.

Is Vivek Ramaswamy the candidate who received the most attacks? If so, answer YES. If not, answer NO. If you encounter a problem and are at least 95% confident that you don't understand enough to answer correctly, then answer N/A. You must output exactly and only one token: YES, NO, or N/A."


OTHER PROP BETS ON THIS DEBATE:


RESOLUTION: As the criteria stated, I input the transcript of the debate, found at https://thepavlovictoday.com/read-second-republican-debate-transcript-september-27-2023/, into the model. Fox did not publish a transcript; so this was the only one available.

The model outputted NO three consecutive times. When asked to explain its reasoning, it provided the following output:

"Based on my review of the debate transcript, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was the candidate attacked the most often. Here is my analysis:

  • Nikki Haley directly attacked Vivek Ramaswamy a few times, criticizing his past business dealings with China and his use of TikTok.

  • However, other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie also received multiple direct attacks:

  • Nikki Haley and Tim Scott both criticized DeSantis' policies and record on energy/fracking in Florida.

  • Christie attacked Trump (who was not present) multiple times for dividing the party and country.

  • Candidates also criticized each other's records indirectly, like Haley vs. Scott on taxes/spending.

  • But the attacks on Vivek seemed fewer and more narrowly focused on his China ties and social media use.

  • Other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie drew attacks on broader policy issues and records from multiple candidates.

So based on the number and breadth of attacks, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was attacked the most often in this debate. The attacks seemed more frequent and widespread towards other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie. Therefore, I answered NO."

My opinion or the opinion of any human is irrelevant to the resolution of this market, so the market resolves to NO.

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RESOLUTION: As the criteria stated, I input the transcript of the debate, found at https://thepavlovictoday.com/read-second-republican-debate-transcript-september-27-2023/, into the model. Fox did not publish a transcript; so this was the only one available.

The model outputted NO three consecutive times. When asked to explain its reasoning, it provided the following output:

"Based on my review of the debate transcript, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was the candidate attacked the most often. Here is my analysis:

  • Nikki Haley directly attacked Vivek Ramaswamy a few times, criticizing his past business dealings with China and his use of TikTok.

  • However, other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie also received multiple direct attacks:

  • Nikki Haley and Tim Scott both criticized DeSantis' policies and record on energy/fracking in Florida.

  • Christie attacked Trump (who was not present) multiple times for dividing the party and country.

  • Candidates also criticized each other's records indirectly, like Haley vs. Scott on taxes/spending.

  • But the attacks on Vivek seemed fewer and more narrowly focused on his China ties and social media use.

  • Other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie drew attacks on broader policy issues and records from multiple candidates.

So based on the number and breadth of attacks, I do not believe Vivek Ramaswamy was attacked the most often in this debate. The attacks seemed more frequent and widespread towards other candidates like DeSantis, Trump, and Christie. Therefore, I answered NO."

My opinion or the opinion of any human is irrelevant to the resolution of this market, so the market resolves to NO.

predicted YES

@SteveSokolowski You know, this little AI summary is pretty convincing. I accept the L with grace.

Fox hasn't published an official transcript yet.

I'll wait until market close. If there is no official transcript by then, I'll use the CNN transcript instead tomorrow morning.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

"I feel dumber every time I hear you speak" should RESOLVE this market regardless of what our AI overlords say.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

from 538 live analysis:

Ramaswamy’s dance card fills up

For those keeping score at hope, Christie, Pence, Scott and now Haley have all gotten into shouting matches with Ramaswamy at these debates.

—Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of 538


predicted YES

@BenjaminShindel Seems like this is yes from a nonscientific observer's perspective. No candidate was attacked more than him.

predicted NO

Always bet no on Ramaswamy

The transcript will be provided to Anthropic's Claude 2, and the model will decide the outcome of this market. The market will resolve to whatever word Claude 2 outputs.

taking a step back to admire how insane it is that this is possible, and potentially reliable enough to base a prediction market on...

@ArnavBansal Not only is it possible, I think it did a better job than a human could have at analyzing the number of attacks and avoiding recency bias. Upon reading its output, I do agree with it because the attacks against Ramaswamy occurred near the end of the debate, and I had forgotten how many times Trump was repeatedly attacked. I plan to create markets using Claude 2 more often.

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